Core Sector: Electricity/Energy

Load Growth

The United States is facing a period of meaningful load growth, due to electrification efforts, a significant increase in domestic manufacturing, and the growth in data centers. NERC’s 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment estimates that the summer peak demand forecast is expected to rise by 15% (132 GW) for the 10-year period. State utility regulators are tasked with the challenge of meeting a sharp increase in electricity demand while balancing residential customer impact.

The NARUC Center for Partnerships & Innovation provides commissions with timely and relevant resources and activities (available below), including reports, technical papers, and virtual trainings aimed at supporting utility regulators as they navigate these challenges. These efforts are coordinated with NARUC’s Committee on Electricity.

  • Large Load Literature Review, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, August 2025
    This literature review catalogs more than 60 publications focused on large loads, and groups the documents and resources thematically into 11 categories (listed below). LBNL anticipates updating the literature review on a monthly basis.
    • Load forecasting 
    • Reliability and resource adequacy 
    • Large load interconnection
    • Demand flexibility
    • Generation
    • Co-location
    • Data center location/infrastructure
    • Large load tariffs
    • Policy options
    • Maps and tools
    • Design and operations        
  • Database of Emerging Large-Load Tariffs (DELTa)
    DELTa is a product of SEPA and the NC Clean Energy Technology Center (NCCETC) and was developed as a public, user-friendly database of contemporary utility rates and contracts for large loads. NCCETC and SEPA track regulatory activity regularly and plan to update the catalog quarterly.

  • NASEO Powering Up Data Centers and NASEO-NARUC Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings Working Group Webinar: Data Center and Large Load Flexibility to Meet Energy Demand Growth, August 7, 2025
    This webinar, moderated by Blaise Caudill (Deputy Director, Office of Resiliency, Arizona Executive Office of the Governor), featured Tyler Norris (Duke University, Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability) presenting on Integrating Large Flexible Loads in US Power Systems based on a recent report and Aroon Vijaykar (Senior Vice President, Strategy and Commercial, Emerald AI) presented on Emerald AI’s demonstration of data center compute orchestration, delivering firm dispatchable load flexibility in Phoenix, Arizona. (Supplemental post from Tyler Norris, The Puzzle of Low Data Center Utilization Rates, and paper from Emerald AI, et al.)

  • NASEO-NARUC Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings Working Group webinar: Using Grid-Edge Resources (GERs) to Provide Distribution-level Services, July 24, 2025
    Paul De Martini (Newport Consulting Group) discussed the evolving role of GERs to provide grid services for managing local distribution needs affordably. Robert Cully from the New York Department of Public Service described his state’s programs and approaches to advance GERs, including demand flexibility, to provide distribution-level services.

  • 2025 Demand Roundtable
    The goal of the Demand Roundtable is to bring together a rotating group of seven Public Utility Commissioners, seven large electricity customers, and seven utility / regional transmission operators to discuss the critical issues surrounding increased energy demand over the next decade. The Roundtables aim for open, transparent discussion to foster dialogue that allows state commissioners to better understand energy demand associated with re-shoring, electrification, and data center growth, and what that will mean for individual states.

    • Annual Meeting Demand Roundtable, November 9, 2025 
      The third Demand Roundtable will be held during the NARUC Annual Meeting and Education Conference in Seattle, Washington.

    • Summer Policy Summit Demand Roundtable, July 27, 2025
      The second Demand Roundtable was convened during the NARUC Summer Policy Summit in Boston, Massachusetts.

    • Winter Policy Summit Demand Roundtable, February 23, 2025
      The inaugural Demand Roundtable was convened during the NARUC Winter Policy Summit in Washington, DC.

  • AI: Balancing Potential Benefits with Future Load Growth Expectations, September 19, 2024
    Over the past few years, American awareness of Artificial Intelligence and its potential to impact most facets of the national economy has grown considerably. AI could have a significant impact on states by unlocking new opportunities for optimization and efficiency in the energy sector. This computing renaissance will require substantial improvements in chip efficiency and growth in data centers to support greater computer processing needs for the large learning models that AI uses. This webinar explored AI use cases that can be leveraged to unlock grid capacity, flexibility, and resilience and consider some of the challenges states may face in meeting load growth expectations.

Funder:

NARUC is grateful to the U.S. Department of Energy Grid Deployment Office and Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy for funding to support these efforts.